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Mega Millions Jackpot Analysis

Media: You may freely use any information on this page, but you must credit usamega.com.

The tax information provided here is based on 2021 federal marginal rates and state tax rates. We show both the intial mandated federal withholding of 24% as well as the remaining federal taxes that will be due. The initial state withholding taxes are based on published guidance from each state lottery and the final state tax rates are from state government publications.

All annuity amounts shown are the average amounts a jackpot winner would receive. Mega Millions annuity payments are made on an annually-increasing rate schedule, so to see what the payments would be on a year-by-year basis for any state, click the Annual Payment Schedule link next to the state.

Important: Be sure to review the Important Notes section at the bottom of the page, which provide additional context about the numbers presented here.

Federal Filing Status:

Annuity Cash
Mega Millions Jackpot for Tue, Jan 26, 2021 $20,000,000 $14,700,000
Gross Prize 30 average annual payments of $666,667 Cash: $14,700,000
– 24% federal tax – $160,000 – $3,528,000
– Add’l federal taxes due (37% final rate) – $50,739 – $1,875,072
Subtotal $455,928 $9,296,928
– State Tax:
Arizona: 4.8% state tax for in-state residents – $32,000 – $705,600
Your average net per year: $423,928 Your net payout: $8,591,328
After 30 payments: $12,717,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Non-Arizona residents: 6% state tax – $40,000 – $882,000
Your average net per year: $415,928 Your net payout: $8,414,928
After 30 payments: $12,477,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Arkansas: 6.6% state tax – $44,000 – $970,200
Your average net per year: $411,928 Your net payout: $8,326,728
After 30 payments: $12,357,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
California: No state tax on lottery prizes
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Colorado: 4% state tax withheld – $26,667 – $588,000
Add’l state taxes due (4.63% final rate) – $4,200 – $92,610
Your average net per year: $425,061 Your net payout: $8,616,318
After 30 payments: $12,751,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
Connecticut: 6.99% state tax – $46,600 – $1,027,530
Your average net per year: $409,328 Your net payout: $8,269,398
After 30 payments: $12,279,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Delaware: 0% state tax withheld – $0 – $0
Add’l state taxes due (6.6% final rate) – $44,000 – $970,200
Your average net per year: $411,928 Your net payout: $8,326,728
After 30 payments: $12,357,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Florida: No state tax on lottery prizes
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Georgia: 5.75% state tax – $38,333 – $845,250
Your average net per year: $417,594 Your net payout: $8,451,678
After 30 payments: $12,527,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Idaho: 6.925% state tax – $46,167 – $1,017,975
Your average net per year: $409,761 Your net payout: $8,278,953
After 30 payments: $12,292,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
Illinois: 4.95% state tax – $33,000 – $727,650
Your average net per year: $422,928 Your net payout: $8,569,278
After 30 payments: $12,687,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Indiana: 3.23% state tax – $21,533 – $474,810
Your average net per year: $434,394 Your net payout: $8,822,118
After 30 payments: $13,031,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Iowa: 5% state tax withheld – $33,333 – $735,000
Add’l state taxes due (8.53% final rate) – $23,533 – $518,910
Your average net per year: $399,061 Your net payout: $8,043,018
After 30 payments: $11,971,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
Kansas: 5% state tax withheld – $33,333 – $735,000
Add’l state taxes due (5.7% final rate) – $4,667 – $102,900
Your average net per year: $417,928 Your net payout: $8,459,028
After 30 payments: $12,537,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Kentucky: 5% state tax – $33,333 – $735,000
Your average net per year: $422,594 Your net payout: $8,561,928
After 30 payments: $12,677,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Louisiana: 5% state tax withheld – $33,333 – $735,000
Add’l state taxes due (6% final rate) – $6,667 – $147,000
Your average net per year: $415,928 Your net payout: $8,414,928
After 30 payments: $12,477,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Maine: 5% state tax withheld – $33,333 – $735,000
Add’l state taxes due (7.15% final rate) – $14,333 – $316,050
Your average net per year: $408,261 Your net payout: $8,245,878
After 30 payments: $12,247,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
Maryland: 8.95% state tax for in-state residents – $59,667 – $1,315,650
Your average net per year: $396,261 Your net payout: $7,981,278
After 30 payments: $11,887,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
Non-Maryland residents: 8% state tax – $53,333 – $1,176,000
Your average net per year: $402,594 Your net payout: $8,120,928
After 30 payments: $12,077,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Massachusetts: 5% state tax – $33,333 – $735,000
Your average net per year: $422,594 Your net payout: $8,561,928
After 30 payments: $12,677,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Michigan: 4.25% state tax – $28,333 – $624,750
Your average net per year: $427,594 Your net payout: $8,672,178
After 30 payments: $12,827,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Minnesota: 7.25% state tax withheld – $48,333 – $1,065,750
Add’l state taxes due (9.85% final rate) – $17,333 – $382,200
Your average net per year: $390,261 Your net payout: $7,848,978
After 30 payments: $11,707,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
Mississippi: 5% state tax – $33,333 – $735,000
Your average net per year: $422,594 Your net payout: $8,561,928
After 30 payments: $12,677,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Missouri: 4% state tax withheld – $26,667 – $588,000
Add’l state taxes due (5.4% final rate) – $9,333 – $205,800
Your average net per year: $419,928 Your net payout: $8,503,128
After 30 payments: $12,597,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Montana: 6.9% state tax – $46,000 – $1,014,300
Your average net per year: $409,928 Your net payout: $8,282,628
After 30 payments: $12,297,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Nebraska: 5% state tax withheld – $33,333 – $735,000
Add’l state taxes due (6.84% final rate) – $12,267 – $270,480
Your average net per year: $410,328 Your net payout: $8,291,448
After 30 payments: $12,309,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
New Hampshire: No state tax on lottery prizes
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
New Jersey: 8% state tax withheld – $53,333 – $1,176,000
Add’l state taxes due (10.75% final rate) – $18,333 – $404,250
Your average net per year: $384,261 Your net payout: $7,716,678
After 30 payments: $11,527,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
New Mexico: 6% state tax – $40,000 – $882,000
Your average net per year: $415,928 Your net payout: $8,414,928
After 30 payments: $12,477,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
New York: 8.82% state tax withheld † – $58,800 – $1,296,540
Add’l state taxes due (9.62% final rate) – $5,333 – $117,600
Your average net per year: $391,794 Your net payout: $7,882,788
After 30 payments: $11,753,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
North Carolina: 5.25% state tax – $35,000 – $771,750
Your average net per year: $420,928 Your net payout: $8,525,178
After 30 payments: $12,627,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
North Dakota: 2.9% state tax – $19,333 – $426,300
Your average net per year: $436,594 Your net payout: $8,870,628
After 30 payments: $13,097,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Ohio: 4.797% state tax – $31,980 – $705,159
Your average net per year: $423,948 Your net payout: $8,591,769
After 30 payments: $12,718,440
Annuity Payment Schedule
Oklahoma: 5% state tax – $33,333 – $735,000
Your average net per year: $422,594 Your net payout: $8,561,928
After 30 payments: $12,677,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Oregon: 8% state tax withheld – $53,333 – $1,176,000
Add’l state taxes due (9.9% final rate) – $12,667 – $279,300
Your average net per year: $389,928 Your net payout: $7,841,628
After 30 payments: $11,697,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Pennsylvania: 3.07% state tax – $20,467 – $451,290
Your average net per year: $435,461 Your net payout: $8,845,638
After 30 payments: $13,063,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
Rhode Island: 5.99% state tax – $39,933 – $880,530
Your average net per year: $415,994 Your net payout: $8,416,398
After 30 payments: $12,479,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
South Carolina: 7% state tax – $46,667 – $1,029,000
Your average net per year: $409,261 Your net payout: $8,267,928
After 30 payments: $12,277,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
South Dakota: No state tax on lottery prizes
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Tennessee: No state tax on lottery prizes
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Texas: No state tax on lottery prizes
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
U.S. Virgin Islands: Unknown state tax rate
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Vermont: 6% state tax withheld – $40,000 – $882,000
Add’l state taxes due (8.75% final rate) – $18,333 – $404,250
Your average net per year: $397,594 Your net payout: $8,010,678
After 30 payments: $11,927,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Virginia: 4% state tax withheld – $26,667 – $588,000
Add’l state taxes due (5.75% final rate) – $11,667 – $257,250
Your average net per year: $417,594 Your net payout: $8,451,678
After 30 payments: $12,527,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Washington: No state tax on lottery prize s
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Washington, D.C.: 8.95% state tax – $59,667 – $1,315,650
Your average net per year: $396,261 Your net payout: $7,981,278
After 30 payments: $11,887,830
Annuity Payment Schedule
West Virginia: 6.5% state tax – $43,333 – $955,500
Your average net per year: $412,594 Your net payout: $8,341,428
After 30 payments: $12,377,820
Annuity Payment Schedule
Wisconsin: 7.65% state tax – $51,000 – $1,124,550
Your average net per year: $404,928 Your net payout: $8,172,378
After 30 payments: $12,147,840
Annuity Payment Schedule
Wyoming: No state tax on lottery prizes
Your average net per year: $455,928 Your net payout: $9,296,928
After 30 payments: $13,677,840
Annuity Payment Schedule

† New York imposes additional withholding if you live in one of the following jurisdictions: New York City (3.876%) and Yonkers (1.477%).

Mega Millions jackpot analysis shows the net amount a grand prize winner would receive after federal and state taxes are withheld.

Super lotto jackpot analysis

Sanderson M. Smith

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CALIFORNIA’S
SuperLOTTO Plus

SuperLOTTO Plus was introduced by the California Lottery on June 4, 2000. There are nine ways to win, and the jackpot starts at seven million dollars.

The rules for SuperLOTTO Plus are relatively simple. There are two number sets:

Set A: The integers from 1 to 47 inclusive.

Set B: The integers from 1 to 27 inclusive.

A player spends $1 for the privilege of selecting five numbers from Set A, and one number, called the MEGA number, from Set B. All prize payout amounts are pari-mutual. That is, the amount of money varies from week to week, depending upon the sales levels and the number of winners. The jackpot prize, obtained when one matches all five numbers and the MEGA number, has a stated minimum value of seven million dollars.

There are nine ways to win in SuperLOTTO Plus. Probabilities and odds associated with the game are displayed in the table below. Here are some notes and observations relating to the table:

  • When playing, two events are involved. One involves choosing five numbers from Set A, and the second consists of picking one number from Set B. The two events are statistically independent, so related probabilities can be multiplied, as is done in the table.
  • The probability that a player matches the MEGA number is 1/27, and the probability that the MEGA number is not matched is 26/27.
  • The symbolism nCr represents the number of different sets of r objects that can be selected from a set of n objects. For instance, consider the set . If I want to choose two colors from this set, there are 4C2 = 6 ways this can be done. The six possible sets are , , , , , and . Modern calculators (the TI-83, for instance), have menus that include nCr.
  • A number such as 2.41451E-08 is 2.41451/108, which is 0.0000000241451. (This number does appear in the table.)

It is often helpful to represent very small probabilities in the form 1/x using the algebraic identity

For instance, the probability of hitting the jackpot is 0.0000000241451 (see table). Using the algebraic identity, this can be written as

0.0000000241451 = 1 / (1/0.0000000241451) = 1 / 41,416,353.

In other words, the odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 41,416,353.

Here is a statistical analysis of SuperLOTTO Plus:

EVENT

SYMBOLIC PROBABILITY

NUMERICAL PROBABILITY

ODDS: 1 in —

Match FIVE and MEGA

(5 C 5)(42 C 0) (1/27) / 47 C 5

2.41451E-08

41,416,353

Match FIVE and NO MEGA

(5 C 5)(42 C 0) (26/27) / 47 C 5

6.27771E-07

1,592,937

Match FOUR and MEGA

(5 C 4)(42 C 1) (1/27) / 47 C 5

5.07046E-06

197,221

Match FOUR and NO MEGA

(5 C 4)(42 C 1) (26/27) / 47 C 5

0.000131832

Match THREE and MEGA

(5 C 3)(42 C 2) (1/27) / 47 C 5

0.000207889

Match THREE and NO MEGA

(5 C 3)(42 C 2) (26/27) / 47 C 5

0.005405111

Match TWO and MEGA

(5 C 2)(42 C 3) (1/27) / 47 C 5

0.002771852

Match ONE and MEGA

(5 C 1)(42 C 4) (1/27) / 47 C 5

0.013512778

Match NONE and MEGA

(5 C 0)(42 C 5) (1/27) / 47 C 5

0.020539423

TOTAL PROBABILITY OF WINNING SOMETHING =

0.0425746088

0.042574608 =
1/(1/0.042574608) =
1/23.4881786.
Overall odds of winning are 1 in

As the table indicates, the probability of hitting the jackpot is quite small. To use a time perspective, suppose you continually “invested” $1 per second in SuperLOTTO Plus. Mathematically speaking, you would have to play continuously for over 15 months to expect to hit the jackpot once. And, you could expect to invest over 41 million dollars to get a return that could be as small as 7 million dollars.

But then, while they may be few and far between, there are those who spend $1 and end up as big winners in games like SuperLOTTO Plus.

“Oh, many a shaft at random sent

Finds mark the archer little meant.”

-Sir Walter Scott: The Lord of the Isles

A Mathematics Resource for High School Students and Teachers ]]>